October 2009 Amarillo Economic Analysis
Amarillo’s economy continues to operate at levels well below last year with the decline in Workers Employed pulling down retail sales. Vehicle sales, airline boardings, motel tax were also off.
Retail sales are down 11% from twelve months ago with restaurants and auto sales reporting that businesses noticeably slowed. Amarillo’s declines exceed Lubbock (down 1.7%) and Houston (down 3.7%), comparable to Dallas (down 11%), and better than Midland (down 20%).
1,000 less people are working in Amarillo compared to twelve months ago, but 3,000 less than 24 months ago. The Employers Survey shows 2,200 less jobs than last year at this time. Wages and hours worked are also down.
Construction is slower but remains at an acceptable level with new permits down 15% from a year ago and 10% YTD. Residential starts have been stronger and low mortgage rates continue to support this sector.
Our commodities seem to be flattening out with drilling rigs and oil & gas prices about flat with last month but down 50% from last year.
Fall crops look good as far as yield, but prices are below last year. The lower corn prices have allowed dairies and ethanol plants to return to profitability. Feedlot cattle continue at about break even.
| October 2009 | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index* | $174.49 | $170.05 | $220.66 |
| $Sales Tax Collections | $4,440,005 | $4,614,430 | $4,962,570 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $47,705,876 | $43,265,871 | $49,492,948 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 794 | 1,140 | 1,277 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 1,362 | 1,483 | 1,489 |
| Vehicle Registrations (Stickers) | 17,427 | 17,942 | 17,290 |
| Postal Receipts | $1,704,306 | $2,103,628 | $1,824,982 |
| Airline Boardings | 31,771 | 33,892 | 33,920 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $395,667 | $474,056 | $408,530 |
| Population - Corporate Amarillo | 191,514 | 191,514 | 190,042 |
| Employment - CLF | 131,600 | 131,000 | 129,900 |
| Unemployment Rate | 5.80% | 5.60% | 3.80% |
| Total Workers Employed | 124,000 | 123,700 | 125,000 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $668.39 | $668.39 | $736.42 |
| Gas | 65,651 | 65,644 | 65,030 |
| Water Connection | 66,698 | 66,630 | 66,396 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | 4.88% | 5.13% | 6.50% |
| Year To Date Permits Dollar Amount | $45,776,005 | $20,139,387 | $53,648,412 |
| Year To Date Permits | 263,612,443 | 217,836,438 | 294,108,125 |
| Residential Starts | 51 | 64 | 39 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 32 | 31 | 73 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $67.43 | $66.72 | $72.89 |
| Natural Gas | $2.71 | $3.66 | $7.27 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $4.38 | $3.94 | $5.22 |
| Fat Cattle Per CWT | $82.00 | $85.00 | $91.00 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $3.63 | $3.25 | $4.10 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $60.16 | $57.25 | $46.01 |
*Base-100, January 1988
This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
