January 2010 Amarillo Economic Analysis
Flattening continues in the Amarillo economy as retail sales and employment have leveled out and construction up slightly from last year. Retail sales (for November) were flat with the month before and down 7% from twelve months earlier. This is an improvement from the 13% drop the previous two months.
Workers Employed are flat in the Household Survey but down 2,200 in the Employers Survey. Manufacturing makes up 1,000 of that decline and Trade, Transportation & Utilities are down 1,100. The employment numbers in Lubbock were up 1,000 in both surveys and Midland/Odessa is down 1,000 in the Household and 4,000 in the Employers. However, our average weekly wages are down 7% from twelve months ago.
Building permits are about even with last year, and residential starts are 40 compared to 24 twelve months ago when the slow down began. Our six months trailing construction in progress remains flat with last month and last year’s levels.
Commodities are slightly better with a strong increase in oil and natural gas prices over a month ago, bringing oil to double last year and natural gas back to last year’s levels. Drilling rigs have flattened out at 46 down from 59 one year ago.
Commodity prices are up in agri-business, although wheat and corn are down from a year ago. Cotton has stayed at its high level and cattle prices have come up some.
| January 2010 | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index* | $169.87 | $202.32 | $159.29 |
| Sales Tax Collections | $4,307,158 | $4,317,255 | $4,633,158 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $4,307,158 | $56,514,271 | $4,633,158 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 672 | 661 | 915 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 1,321 | 1,079 | 979 |
| Vehicle Registrations (Stickers) | 17,350 | 14,604 | 17,340 |
| Postal Receipts | $1,456,003 | $1,553,452 | $2,340,379 |
| Airline Boardings | 35,395 | 31,900 | 37,157 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $288,905 | $339,834 | $335,043 |
| Population - Corporate Amarillo | 191,514 | 191,514 | 190,043 |
| Employment - CLF | 130,800 | 131,700 | 128,700 |
| Unemployment Rate | 5.30% | 5.30% | 3.70% |
| Total Workers Employed | 123,900 | 124,700 | 123,900 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $683.90 | $683.90 | $736.42 |
| Gas | 67,055 | 66,890 | 66,221 |
| Water Connection | 66,682 | 66,615 | 66,211 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | 5.00% | 4.88% | 5.00% |
| Year To Date Permits Dollar Amount | $15,563,548 | $79,374,036 | $13,504,864 |
| Year To Date Permits | 15,563,548 | 383,653,058 | 13,504,864 |
| Residential Starts | 40 | 56 | 24 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 46 | 46 | 59 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $75.51 | $66.81 | $36.95 |
| Natural Gas | $5.78 | $4.82 | $5.84 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $4.68 | $4.46 | $5.31 |
| Fat Cattle Per CWT | $85.50 | $84.00 | $82.00 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $3.74 | $3.51 | $3.84 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $66.95 | $67.76 | $43.07 |
*Base-100, January 1988
This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
