AUGUST 2008 Amarillo Economic Analysis
Amarillo’s economy continues to flatten this month as a slowdown in construction lead to a decline in employment. The area continues to see retail sales increase, although vehicle sales have decreased.
Retail sales in June were up 9% from last year to date. New car sales are up 5%, but used car sales are down 11%. Some used car lots are seeing sales of SUV’s actually rise as their new lower prices attract customers.
Amarillo’s employment numbers are down as the Household Survey shows a decrease of 800 jobs, although Lubbock saw a decrease of 1,400. The Midland/Odessa area saw an increase of 3,200 jobs. The Employer’s Survey shows Amarillo had a gain of 200 jobs while Lubbock lost 400 and Midland/Odessa gained 3,700.
Construction is slowing down. Building permits are down 13% from last July and are flat year to date. Residential starts are down 28% as inventories swell.
Commodities remain strong which helps our economy. Drilling rigs in the Panhandle are up 52% from last year as oil prices are up 67% and gas prices are up 41% from a year ago. Wheat (+33%), Corn, (+55%), and cotton (+9%) prices are stronger than last year and all will be helped by the recent rain. Cattle are up 12% from last year and feedyard operators are close to profitable.
Local inflation spiked to a 6.6% annual rate due to the 13% increase in transportation costs plus a 7% increase in groceries. Housing and health increases were near 1% each.
| August 2008 | Current Month | Last Month | $Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index* | $222.39 | $220.88 | $198.96 |
| $Sales Tax Collections | $5,331,991 | $4,901,003 | $4,894,900 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $39,523,613 | $34,191,622 | $37,492,235 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 1,407 | 1,399 | 1,344 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 1,543 | 1,637 | 1,728 |
| Total Vehicle Registrations | 20,823 | 21,119 | 18,829 |
| Postal Receipts | $2,034,822 | $1,881,329 | $2,453,638 |
| Airline Boardings | 43,496 | 44,759 | 42,898 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $429,834 | $362,983 | $467,527 |
| Population - Corporate Amarillo | 187,609 | 187,609 | 187,609 |
| Employment - CLF | 130,500 | 130,200 | 131,200 |
| Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | 3.70% | 3.70% |
| Total Workers Employed | 125,600 | 125,400 | 126,400 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $713.80 | $713.80 | $663.03 |
| Gas | 65,200 | 65,013 | 67,782 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | 6.63% | 6.38% | 6.63% |
| Year To Date Permits Dollar Amount | $24,847,781 | $26,319,599 | $28,435,014 |
| Year To Date Permits | 195,148,223 | 170,300,442 | 196,344,009 |
| Residential Starts | 41 | 35 | 57 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 97 | 95 | 64 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $114.59 | $130.54 | $68.62 |
| Natural Gas | $8.70 | $11.22 | $6.15 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $8.16 | $7.57 | $6.12 |
| Fat Cattle Per CWT | $101.00 | $97.50 | $90.00 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $5.50 | $6.16 | $3.55 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $61.62 | $62.69 | $56.12 |
*Base-100, January 1988
