October 2009 Amarillo Economic Analysis

Amarillo’s economy continues to operate at levels well below last year with the decline in Workers Employed pulling down retail sales. Vehicle sales, airline boardings, motel tax were also off.

Retail sales are down 11% from twelve months ago with restaurants and auto sales reporting that businesses noticeably slowed. Amarillo’s declines exceed Lubbock (down 1.7%) and Houston (down 3.7%), comparable to Dallas (down 11%), and better than Midland (down 20%).

1,000 less people are working in Amarillo compared to twelve months ago, but 3,000 less than 24 months ago. The Employers Survey shows 2,200 less jobs than last year at this time. Wages and hours worked are also down.

Construction is slower but remains at an acceptable level with new permits down 15% from a year ago and 10% YTD. Residential starts have been stronger and low mortgage rates continue to support this sector.

Our commodities seem to be flattening out with drilling rigs and oil & gas prices about flat with last month but down 50% from last year.

Fall crops look good as far as yield, but prices are below last year. The lower corn prices have allowed dairies and ethanol plants to return to profitability. Feedlot cattle continue at about break even.

 


October 2009 Current Month Last Month Last Year
Index* $174.49 $170.05 $220.66
$Sales Tax Collections $4,440,005 $4,614,430 $4,962,570
Sales Tax Collection-YTD $47,705,876 $43,265,871 $49,492,948
New Vehicle Sales 794 1,140 1,277
Used Vehicle Sales 1,362 1,483 1,489
Vehicle Registrations (Stickers) 17,427 17,942 17,290
Postal Receipts $1,704,306 $2,103,628 $1,824,982
Airline Boardings 31,771 33,892 33,920
Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax $395,667 $474,056 $408,530
Population - Corporate Amarillo 191,514 191,514 190,042
Employment - CLF 131,600 131,000 129,900
Unemployment Rate 5.80% 5.60% 3.80%
Total Workers Employed 124,000 123,700 125,000
Average Weekly Wages $668.39 $668.39 $736.42
Gas 65,651 65,644 65,030
Water Connection 66,698 66,630 66,396
Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates 4.88% 5.13% 6.50%
Year To Date Permits Dollar Amount $45,776,005 $20,139,387 $53,648,412
Year To Date Permits 263,612,443 217,836,438 294,108,125
Residential Starts 51 64 39
Drilling Rigs In Panhandle 32 31 73
Oil Price Per Barrel $67.43 $66.72 $72.89
Natural Gas $2.71 $3.66 $7.27
Wheat Per Bushel $4.38 $3.94 $5.22
Fat Cattle Per CWT $82.00 $85.00 $91.00
Corn Per Bushel $3.63 $3.25 $4.10
Cotton (Cents Per Pound) $60.16 $57.25 $46.01

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations.  The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.