August 2010 Amarillo Economic Analysis
A 3% climb in retail sales (for June) higher commodities, and continued job growth pulled the Amarillo economy up slightly. Construction and slower vehicle sales offset some of the gains. Overall, it still feels flat but slightly better than last year.
New construction is slow with a 29% drop in building permits and a 50% drop in new housing starts. But our six month trailing construction in progress is only down 4% from this time last year.
Workers Employed continues up 1,000 and the Employers Survey is catching up, showing down only 100 from twelve months ago. Government has gained 700 jobs and Manufacturing is up 100 offsetting losses in Leisure & Hospitality, Oil & Construction, and Trade, Transportation & Utilities. Lubbock is up 900 on the Employers Survey while Midland/Odessa is flat.
Our commodities represent very good news for our area with oil, wheat, cattle, and cotton up sharply from a year ago. With good moisture the agri-business sector is contributing in a fine manner to the Panhandle’s economy.
Amarillo’s Leading Index is up .13% after three negative months. This should forecast activity four months from now.
Attached are comments of our loan officers and customers of the major sectors of the Panhandle’s economy. They reflect the current status of business and profitability in these sectors.
| August 2010 | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index* | $187.30 | $185.48 | $173.71 |
| Sales Tax Collections | $5,214,605 | $4,486,626 | $5,025,487 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $37,904,787 | $32,690,182 | $38,651,441 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 861 | 1,015 | 845 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 1,458 | 1,462 | 1,412 |
| Vehicle Registrations (Stickers) | 19,438 | 20,389 | 20,567 |
| Airline Boardings | 40,081 | 39,513 | 39,980 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $470,156 | $439,806 | $445,989 |
| Population - Corporate Amarillo | 191,514 | 191,514 | 191,514 |
| Employment - CLF | 134,900 | 133,100 | 134,000 |
| Unemployment Rate | 5.80% | 6.00% | 5.90% |
| Total Workers Employed | 127,100 | 125,100 | 126,100 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $751.66 | $751.66 | $668.39 |
| Gas | 65,875 | 65,004 | 65,616 |
| Water Connection | 67,254 | 67,192 | 66,738 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | 4.63% | 4.63% | 5.25% |
| Year To Date Permits Dollar Amount | $19,951,749 | $20,923,436 | $28,236,244 |
| Year To Date Permits | 175,359,393 | 155,407,644 | 197,697,051 |
| Residential Starts | 28 | 47 | 57 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 64 | 69 | 31 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $75.10 | $73.30 | $57.60 |
| Natural Gas | $4.31 | $4.53 | $3.66 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $5.53 | $4.27 | $4.33 |
| Fat Cattle Per CWT | $95.00 | $92.50 | $82.00 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $4.06 | $3.55 | $3.09 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $81.40 | $80.19 | $56.55 |
*Base-100, January 1988
This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
