June 2009 Amarillo Economic Analysis

Amarillo’s economy continues to suffer from job losses. Employers continue to cut back and more people are working in part time employment.

According to the employer’s survey, the number of people working declined by 1,500 jobs from a year ago. Out of this number, 1,100 manufacturing jobs have been eliminated. Lubbock has 800 less people working, with 500 less manufacturing jobs. Midland/Odessa has 1,800 more people working, but have seen manufacturing jobs decline by 500. The household survey shows jobs in Amarillo are down by 200, this is probably due to more people being put on part time or those looking for jobs are finding only part time jobs.

Retail sales have stabilized and are up 5% from last year, helped by the Easter being in April. Compared to last year, car dealers are seeing used car sales flat and new car sales down 45%.

Airline boardings are down 16% from last year and the hotel/motel tax is flat.

There were 3 more residential starts this year (51) than last year (48) due to the low mortgage rates that we have seen in the last couple of months. Building permits are up 25% from last year, due to the $5.3 million FedEx Distribution Center.

Since natural gas is down 67% from last year, there are 60 less drilling rigs in the Panhandle. Both oil (+ 20%) and natural gas (+ 7%) prices are up from last month.

Farmers and Ranchers are constantly reminded of the higher prices from a year ago as commodity prices are still depressed. The loss for cattle coming out of the feedlot remains treacherous. A below average wheat crop will hopefully be offset by a strong corn crop later in the summer.

Amarillo’s CPI shows an increase of 1.1% from last year against the national average of 0.1%. Increases in Health Costs and Miscellaneous Costs (haircuts, apparel, and dry cleaning) were offset by big drops in Utilities, down 19% and Transportation, down 10%.

June 2009	Current Month	Last Month	Last Year
Index*	$171.87	$170.65	$218.10
$Sales Tax Collections	$4,805,835	$4,905,441	$4,579,051
Sales Tax Collection-YTD	$29,100,398	$24,294,562	$29,290,614
New Vehicle Sales	715	793	1,308
Used Vehicle Sales	1,325	1,367	1,320
Vehicle Registrations (Stickers)	20,059	23,390	18,587
Postal Receipts	$2,115,526	$2,130,254	$2,150,860
Airline Boardings	34,332	33,606	40,970
Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax	$311,451	$347,083	$315,552
Population - Corporate Amarillo	191,514	191,514	190,042
Employment - CLF	130,200	130,300	128,500
Unemployment Rate	4.70%	4.10%	3.20%
Total Workers Employed	124,100	125,000	124,300
Average Weekly Wages	$752.18	$752.18	$713.80
Gas	65,870	65,886	65,541
Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates	5.75%	4.88%	6.63%
Year To Date Permits Dollar Amount	$25,925,454	$28,021,293	$20,772,288
Year To Date Permits	152,454,399	126,528,945	143,980,843
Residential Starts	51	47	48
Drilling Rigs In Panhandle	25	25	86
Oil Price Per Barrel	$65.99	$55.42	$130.72
Natural Gas	$4.14	$3.86	$12.80
Wheat Per Bushel	$5.56	$5.70	$8.60
Fat Cattle Per CWT	$83.00	$85.00	$95.00
Corn Per Bushel	$4.12	$4.22	$7.29
Cotton (Cents Per Pound)	$51.62	$53.25	$60.22

*Base-100, January 1988