Amarillo Economic Analysis

Amarillo's Economy looks better, with good increases in Employment, Vehicle Sales, and Building Permits. Tourism has shown continued weakness.

Sales Tax Collections for the month (of January) are flat, with last year, but up 4% YTD. New and Used vehicle sales are both up 28% from last year.

Tourism seems to be slowing, with hotel occupancy down, even though the motel tax is flat. Airline boardings are down 5% from a year ago.

The employment picture contains very good news, with a jump of 3,900 more people working in the Household Survey (includes part time) and 2,700 more people in the Employers' Survey. Wages are up 4% from this time last year. Much of Amarillo's job growth comes from Pantex, which is up to 4,700 employees. An approximate 20% increase from 2-years ago.

Building Permits for February were double the year before, bringing the YTD to 130% more than last year; even though Residential Starts were down 18% for the month and YTD. The average house price is down by 1%. Commercial construction has carried the permits, but our construction in progress number (last 6-months) may be slowing.

Energy is softer, with only 1 drilling rig vs 4 last year, and a 15% decline in the price of Oil; however, Natural Gas prices are up 124%, boosting many of the Panhandle royalty checks.

While moisture remains scarce, the prices for Wheat are up 13% and Cattle up 7%. Corn is flat, but Cotton is down 18%. Panhandle Producers will produce less cotton and more corn this year (even though that hurts the water table). Dairy continues to be profitable, with milk prices up 12%.

Uncertainty about the direction of future tariffs impact businesses selling capital goods and in agriculture. Tariffs are a tax, and when you tax anything, you get less of it.